Don Brash’s return to politics has some of the current lot suffering palpitations. National know he could inflict serious damage on their own electoral objectives. Some people at ACT would be all a lather at the thought that should Dr. Brash take control there, their own presence may not be required. Going a step further, a new party would have a serious and probably fatal impact on ACT and cut a huge slice off National’s vote. Both these groups would be earnestly hoping Brash will just remain sitting on the sidelines.
David Farrar speculates bizarrely that Don might get only 4% of the vote if he starts a new party. WTF?? I reckon its highly possible for Brash with a new party to pick up around 20% of the vote. Too high I hear some say. Nope, don’t forget Brash only just failed to drag the hapless National over the line in 2005. According to Wikipedia-
At the New Zealand general election on 17 September 2005, National under Brash’s leadership made major gains, and achieved what was at the time the party’s best result since the institution of the mixed member proportional electoral system in 1993, compared to their worst result ever in 2002 under the leadership of his predecessor, Bill English.
So Brash is a vote puller. There are a tonne of real voters (not poll respondees) who keenly await a real politician. They’ll vote for Brash. There are those who don’t like National, but don’t like ACT even more. They’ll vote for Brash in a new party. There are those highly pissed off at the perception that the Maori Party is running National. They’ll vote for Brash with his one law for all principle. Brash by the sheer power of his electoral appeal and his conviction politics, frightens the pants off wishy washy John Key and the aimless unprincipled National party he leads.
ACT is polling 1.5% or thereabouts. If Brash joins them, he might raise that to 10%. Half of what he would with his own new party. Many people just will not vote for ACT. A new party overcomes this hurdle.
With a new Brash led party on the scene, ACT would be lucky to win the 1.5% they garner in the current polls.
So Brash is all positive, a new party is the way for him to go and I hope he does take that path. (if it is at all possible given the time frame) Nothing would cheer me more than to see the smug smile wiped off John “Mr. Popular” Key’s face when Don Brash’s new party reports a 20% vote at the next elections.
TrueblueNZ 
17 responses to “Don Brash and the Smell of Fear”
Just 10% would seriously dilute the Racist Party’s influence.
LikeLike
I’ve been pondering this a lot in our conversations across the blogosphere.
One thing’s for sure, National are soiling their breeches at the thought of Brash re-entering the fray. That’s why their propaganda factory is spinning so hard. Witness the hapless Farrar and Adolf on the topic. Sad really, when Brash is one of the very few people smart enough to bring New Zealand away from the precipice on which she currently stands. And clearly the membership of the National party caucus contains no such people.
I know I’ve advocated for Brash to take over ACT in favour of starting a new party, but I genuinely don’t care either way. It’s a Brash presence I want to see, with sufficient support to force Key to give Brash the kind of concessions he’s given the party of apartheid this time around. The reason I’m advocating ACT is primarily because as an existing Parliamentary party they get benefits such as TV time come the election (although from the past few days, it appears Brash is quite capable of generating his own LSM interest).
As I said, I genuinely don’t care if it’s ACT or a new party. Brash is the clear thought-leader on the political scene today. If he were able to convince other thought leaders (Newman and Mitchell to name but two) to join him, the new party would be a force to reckon with.
LikeLike
“Just 10% would seriously dilute the Racist Party’s influence.”
Yeah maybe. Hard to say how Brash wanting to end the Maori seats might pan out. Might give them some votes. Might not.
I just hope Brash (if he does start a new party) doesn’t let liberals like Hooton and Ralston influence him, and he steers clear of the waffling and confused Banks.
LikeLike
Of course the National socialists would be worried. Dashing Don probably scares the living shit out of them. There are plenty that have had enough of these National posers. The iceberg is on the horizon and S S National needs a hard turn to starboard.
LikeLike
Gantt, I willingly concede there is a good argument for Brash taking over the leadership of ACt. As always, you make excellent points. I just think he would garner more votes and be more of a threat to National with his own party. If it was practical.
LikeLike
My preference is that Don “clean slate” it and go with a completely new conservative party. There is too much baggage attached to ACT. And if Muriel came on board as well, that would be the icing on the cake for me. I think Red may be pretty close to the money with a new party under Don attracting 20% of the vote.
Go the Don!
LikeLike
Don Brash returning to politics might see me vote again.I hope so? No sane person could vote for any of the lying two-faced spineless creeps that infest the Beehive at present.
LikeLike
“lying two-faced spineless creeps”, shit d4j you must be mellowing in your old age, that’s not the d4j of the past. More feeling man, you can insult better then that 🙂
LikeLike
Yeah, must be the new mellow version.. 🙂
LikeLike
whaleoil is calling it.
LikeLike
I remain of the opinion that there is an advantage in using an existing party and brand, on the condition it can have a thorough work over, meaning tough management and enough money. Main advantage is the grassroots organization that comes with it, and which can be quickly reinvigorated if played correctly. It would be essential however to undertake a thorough cleansing of hangers-on higher in the organization, including non-functioning and treacherous MP’s. Another advantage is that by effectively blowing up ACT from within (in a positive way), some nice governmental instability can be created with the Nats constantly on the back foot and maybe even forced to take more progressive positions to garner support from the green and brown vote, or trying to push things through too rapidly. This would then further cut into the conservative base, who would be inclined to line up behind Brash.
My guess would be that this will also spell a definite end for Peters, by the way, Brash should be able to take most of his 70+ base. All in all, 10% should be very possible, perhaps more. There may yet be a glimmer of hope for this country.
LikeLike
You win, my friend. I now understand your ongoing commentary that ACT is a hopeless policy basket-case. I just clicked a link from the comments on Lindsay Mitchell’s blog and my eyes are still burning. OK, it’s ACT-in-nappies, but shit it was far too early in the morning to be reading such drivel. Here’s a sample:
* My only concern would be that he may not be sufficiently libertarian with regards to social policy. Does anyone know his voting record or stances on prostituition reform/gay marriage-unions and such?
* I’m not sure how much difference it will make given that Roger Douglas is leaving – by which I mean ACT is losing one Economics heavy weight and replacing him with another so why should voters care anymore than they do now?
*Labour + NZ First + Mana Party + Green Party may be enough to get over the top if the Brashphobia of the media kicks in. Rather get Rodney over his fixation with every conservative fad- get ACT to be classical liberal again.
* how many voters did ACT lose when he ran national….nuff said. He was always ACT in national colours anyway, lol now we just gotta get phill goff and we got the whole set.
* on the other hand….would he provide the effective leadership required to run the party
* Sounds very good to me. It’s a shame Sir Roger’s leaving, they’d go well together [The Gantt Guy: I’m sure there’s a Tui billboard in that one]
* My only concern (which has been largely abated) is how liberal he is on social policy. But, yes please!
* Brash and Banks could be the new Bill and Ben.
* I for one would love to see Brash as the leader of ACT because he has some fucking great ideas but National lacked the stomach to actually back up his ideas by campaigning on them – give the man free reign because things can’t possibly get any worse than they are now. [The Gantt Guy: 2005 is obviously too long ago for some people]
* I think he would be good for acts vote but he wouldn’t bring me personally back to act. I think he is a racist. simple as that. [The Gantt Guy: This exercise in mental gymnastics from a fuckwit already expelled from ACT]
So, I agree. ACT are fucked. Don, don’t do it to yourself! Start afresh, and take the best of ACT with you. You, Muriel Newman and Lindsay Mitchell to form the nucleus of a new Party.
LikeLike
Red – I’ve just been reading some comments that suggest that Brash is “negotiating” with current ACT MP’s about his leadership challenge. This indeed makes me a tad nervous. I’d assumed that he pretty much held the cards and would set his terms, not “negotiate” anything at all. We need more details and information, but you may have made the right call. Note also how poor DPF is all a’twitter today about this and DimPost’s assertions about his projects with Grant Robertson. I’d guess these are some unexpected developments for the political literati.
LikeLike
Bez, I suspect the ‘negotiating’ will go something like this:
‘Roger, you’ve already said you’re retiring. I suggest you stick with that.’
‘Heather, you need to start thinking about life after Parliament.’
‘John, you’ve worked hard and done a good job on the ETS and MACAA. You’re a good lieutenant. Support me and we’ll see if we can make you a leader.’
‘Hilary, you’ve started off quite well. You need to work on your elocution. Keep working hard and keep your head down, and you’ll be OK.’
‘Rodney, you’ve always been a good attack dog, but you’ve destroyed the party. It’s time to think about spending more time with your new family.’
Interesting to note, Matthew Hooten doesn’t think Don will get the ACT leadership and that ACT will disintegrate by Christmas in the face of a new party. As I said in my 07:10, I hope he does start a new party.
LikeLike
“I hope he does start a new party.”
Yep, ACT is just a basket case really.
As the posts you reference on Lindsay Mitchell’s blog illustrate.
If Brash goes there it will IMHO mark him as clueless.
LikeLike
DPF is running a scare campaign.
LikeLike
Of course he is, erikter. He is Bill English’s man and if there’s one thing English knows (and it would be pretty much the only thing he knows for sure) it is that Brash makes English look like the halfwitted moron he is. English is terrified of having Brash in the house running rings around him every time he opens his clueless yap.
According to Whale, Hide has the numbers so it looks like he either is happy to consign ACT to the dustbin of history, or he is endowed with sufficient hubris to believe he can defeat a new Brash-led party. Someone put on the popcorn, this should be fun.
LikeLike