Turnbull only lost the leadership to Abbott by one vote in 2009. I’m sorry to say its beginning to look like he’s got the numbers this time. The announcement by Arthur Sinodosis that he supports the spill could be the death knell for Abbott’s leadership.

I think Abbott needs a better defence than “we do not want to look like Labor”, but it is true that yo-yoing the leadership of the Liberals is pretty much what Labor did with Gillard and Rudd.

Turnbull may be popular among center left voters but I’m surprised at his support within the Liberals. Surely they remember his bumbling leadership in 2009. He supports man made climate change, same sex marriage, and he’s a Republican. However worst of all in my mind is his cosy relationship with the Marxists who control the ABC.

On the other hand, Conservatives have plenty of reason to be annoyed with Abbott. His failure to keep his promise on 18C. His silly pre-election promise not to cut ABC funding. His parental leave scheme. His pandering to the separatist “aboriginal” political class.

Personally I think Abbott is still far the better leader than Turnbull, but if others disagree, there is still the question as to whether the change is worth it in terms of the damage to the party’s image. And there is also the question of the coalition agreement where Barnaby Joyce has made it clear that dumping Abbbot will mean that agreement could be voided. On top of that there is no guarantee Turnbull would give them victory in the next election as polls still indicate a win to Labor on preferred party basis.

I hope Abbott can hang on. If he does he needs to dump Turnbull and Bishop for their disloyalty. I’d like to see Scott Morrison brought up the ladder. In fact, if the spill motion is successful, I’d much rather Morrison over all of them. Shame he has said he is not putting his name on the ballot. However he is showing the kind of loyalty that is apparently in short supply in many other members of the Liberal Party.